How to Make a Winning Offer in Today’s Market
If you have been watching the Phoenix housing market over the last few weeks, you have probably noticed the shift. Mortgage rates climbed roughly half a percent in a short window as oil prices, inflation concerns, and broader economic uncertainty rippled through the bond market. Buyer sentiment cooled. Some buyers paused entirely. But here is what those buyers are missing: Maricopa County currently has over 20,000 active listings sitting on the market, and that number tells a story that works squarely in a buyer's favor if you know how to read it.
That shift matters because it changes how an offer should be built. When inventory is high and buyer traffic slows, sellers feel it. Days on market stretch out. Listing agents start having difficult conversations with their clients. And that creates a window where a well-structured offer, one that accounts for both the financing side and the human side of the transaction, can get a buyer into a home with significantly less out-of-pocket cost than they expected. The buyers who move through this market confidently are the ones who understand how to use the current conditions to their advantage rather than waiting for a rate that may never come.
After more than 20 years in the mortgage industry and involvement in over 10,000 purchase transactions, including a number of my own house flips here in the Valley, the single most overlooked opportunity I see buyers leave on the table in a market like this is seller-paid closing costs. In a competitive market, asking for closing costs is a fast way to lose a deal. In a buyers market, it is a smart and completely reasonable negotiating position. Closing costs on a typical Maricopa County purchase run somewhere between 2% and 4% of the loan amount. Getting those covered by the seller at the right purchase price can mean the difference between a buyer who is financially comfortable after closing and one who is stretched thin from day one.
Structuring the offer correctly from the loan side means making sure the purchase price and seller concession work within your loan program's guidelines. Different loan types, whether FHA, VA, conventional, or USDA, each have their own caps on how much a seller can contribute toward a buyer's costs. The offer has to be built with those parameters in mind from the start, not as an afterthought. Presenting a clean, lender-reviewed offer that accounts for these limits signals to the listing agent that the buyer is serious and that the financing is not going to unravel in underwriting.
Equally important, and I would argue even more so in this market, is what happens on the real estate side of the table. One question I get more often than you might expect is whether a buyer even needs their own Realtor or whether they should just call the seller's agent directly. My honest answer, nine times out of ten, is to get your own representation. The listing agent's job is to protect the seller. Having someone in your corner who knows the neighborhood, can read the seller's motivation, and can have candid conversations with the other side of the transaction is worth more than the savings most buyers imagine they are getting by going it alone. If you are not sure where to start or do not have a Realtor you already trust, that is something I can help with directly. I work alongside strong agents throughout the Phoenix metro, and I am happy to point you toward the right fit for your situation, or even make that first call to a listing agent on your behalf to get the conversation started the right way.
The buyers who do well in a market like this are not the ones waiting on the sidelines for rates to drop or for some perfect moment that rarely arrives on schedule. They are the ones who recognize that 25,000 active listings is not a warning sign. It is leverage. Used correctly, that leverage means more negotiating room, more likelihood of getting closing costs covered, and more time to make a thoughtful decision without the panic of a bidding war.
If you are thinking about buying a home in the Phoenix area and want to understand exactly how to structure an offer that works for your loan program and your situation, reach out. That is the conversation we should be having before you write a single word on a purchase contract. Call or text me at 602-492-3304, email chris@cthomeloans.net, or visit cthomeloans.net to get started.